Aubrey Waddle
I analyze how physical energy markets, geopolitical events, and financial positioning translate into prices and risk. Through Agitlytics, I build research tools and publish oil-market analysis that connects data to decisions.
About Me
Connecting the physical barrel to the financial market
I am a data analyst and independent commodity market researcher focused on crude oil, refined products, futures, and derivatives. I am working toward a career in commodity research, trading analytics, or energy-market intelligence, where technical analysis and a practical understanding of market fundamentals inform decisions.
My interest in markets began well before my formal analytics education. Since 2015, I have researched and traded futures and options in a personal account, including crude oil, interest rates, and equity indices. That experience led me to study calendar spreads, option structures, volatility, and the relationship between market narratives and actual price behavior.
Today, I publish independent petroleum-market reporting through Agitlytics. I follow EIA inventory releases, WTI and Brent futures curves, diesel and gasoline crack spreads, refinery conditions, tanker freight, and geopolitical supply risks. My research combines quantitative comparisons with physical-market context, including shipping constraints through the Strait of Hormuz and disruptions affecting major producing and refining regions.
I hold a Bachelor of Science in Data Analytics from Southern New Hampshire University and am pursuing a Master of Science in Data Analytics. I use Python, SQL, R, Excel, Plotly, Power BI, and other tools to develop datasets, analyze statistical relationships, and communicate findings. My aim is not simply to produce a chart, but to explain what the evidence supports, what it does not, and why that distinction matters to a trader, analyst, or decision-maker.
Research Approach
From market fundamentals to actionable analysis
I combine price data, physical supply information, and an understanding of political and operational constraints. My work emphasizes repeatable methods, clearly stated assumptions, and the distinction between evidence, interpretation, and a trade hypothesis.
Crude Oil & Refined-Product Fundamentals
I examine commercial inventories, refinery utilization, crude and product balances, diesel and gasoline cracks, shipping disruptions, and freight costs. I focus on how bottlenecks in one part of the petroleum system affect delivered prices and margins elsewhere.
Derivatives & Market Structure
My independent trading and research cover futures term structures, calendar spreads, volatility regimes, options payoffs, scenario analysis, and event-driven price behavior. I am interested in translating a market outlook into a measurable risk/reward framework.
Geopolitical & Policy Research
I study how sanctions, conflict, trade policy, and government decisions affect energy flows and market expectations. My reporting distinguishes verified developments from open-source claims and considers both short-term headline reactions and longer-term physical constraints.
Data Engineering & Communication
I collect, clean, join, model, and visualize data using Python, SQL, R, and BI tools, then explain the findings in interactive graphics and written research. I also bring experience with databases, business operations, and communicating analyses to nontechnical audiences.
Selected Work
Research and tools built around real market questions
My featured projects emphasize commodity research, trading-related quantitative analysis, and the technical work behind reproducible market intelligence. Additional academic and applied analytics projects demonstrate the same methods across other domains.
Energy Market Intelligence
Agitlytics Oil Market Reports
Produce ongoing market briefs combining WTI and Brent price action, futures curve structure, refinery cracks, inventories, shipping and tanker conditions, and relevant geopolitical developments. The reporting separates observable market moves from political interpretation and develops explicit, revisable market outlooks.
Interactive Energy Research
WTI Prices & EIA Inventory Comparisons
Develop interactive scatter-plot research comparing WTI prices with U.S. commercial crude inventories and deviations from five-year seasonal averages. Historical crisis filters and fitted relationships make it possible to compare current price-inventory conditions with earlier supply shocks, oversupply periods, and demand collapses.
Research In Progress
Crack Spreads & Product Inventory Study
Extending the historical inventory framework to compare diesel and gasoline crack spreads with product stocks across major oil-market crises. The research question is whether extraordinary refined-product tightness can coexist with outright crude prices that remain relatively consistent with historical inventory relationships.
Quantitative Trading Research
SPX Returns & VIX Regime Analysis
Examine S&P 500 returns across volatility regimes using transition probabilities, shock-size filters, forward-return event studies, and illustrative strategy backtests. The project includes equity-curve analysis and sensitivity testing across strategy parameters.
Global Trade Analytics
U.S.–China Trade Partner Visualization
Built an interactive animated tool showing how countries' shares of U.S. and Chinese imports have evolved over time. The project includes data preparation, selectable country and continent views, dynamic axes, and exportable outputs to support comparative trade analysis.
Energy & Decision Analytics
China Electricity Carbon Intensity
Graduate research investigating how electricity generation mix and other energy-system factors relate to carbon intensity. The Power BI-focused project uses exploratory distributions, relationships, and decision-oriented visuals to support interpretation of energy-transition data.
Predictive Analytics
Employee Attrition Classification
Integrated approximately 7,000 HR records from multiple files and compared logistic regression with random forest classification. The workflow covered preprocessing, feature selection, model evaluation, and translating results into workplace retention recommendations.
Enterprise Data Management
Financial-Services Data Architecture
Designed a data-management strategy for a multinational financial-services case study, addressing disparate systems, relational modeling, governance, implementation planning, and operational and regulatory constraints.
Technical Toolkit
Built for research, modeling, and clear communication
Programming & Data Analysis
Python, pandas, NumPy, SciPy, statsmodels, scikit-learn, R, SQL, Excel, and repeatable data-cleaning and analysis workflows.
Databases & Data Pipelines
PostgreSQL, Microsoft SQL Server, MySQL, Snowflake, MongoDB, relational design, joins, window functions, ETL, query optimization, and data governance concepts.
Visualization & Reporting
Plotly, Matplotlib, Seaborn, Power BI, Tableau, Excel dashboards, interactive HTML visualizations, and written market reports.
Quantitative & Market Methods
Regression, hypothesis testing, classification, event studies, time-series comparisons, volatility regimes, transition matrices, futures term structure, calendar spreads, options analysis, and risk/reward scenarios.
Experience
Independent market research and practical analytical work
Agitlytics — Independent Market Research & Reporting
Develop research tools and publish energy-market commentary focused on petroleum fundamentals, futures pricing, refined products, freight markets, and geopolitical developments.
Independent Financial Markets Trader
Research and trade futures and options across crude oil, interest rates, equity indices, and volatility-related products, including calendar spreads and defined-risk options structures.
Freelance Data Analyst & Reporter
Prepare data analyses, visualizations, and written research across market, political, and business topics, emphasizing sound methods and clear interpretation.
Owner, All Seasons Pool Solutions
Manage pricing, costs, route economics, materials, customers, and operations for a service business, applying financial judgment to everyday resource and margin decisions.
Database Developer, CrossFit Willis
Built and supported a MySQL-backed performance tracking system integrated with WordPress, including schema design, SQL queries, and application troubleshooting.
What I am looking for
I am pursuing commodity analyst, energy market analyst, trading analyst, and quantitative market research opportunities—particularly with trading desks, energy firms, and financial institutions where physical-market intelligence, data analysis, and risk-aware judgment come together.
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